Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -30.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +33 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -20.2 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.1 (-35.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -16.7 (+16.3) | 145.9 (-22.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -16.5 (+16.5) | 138.1 (-15.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -17.6 (+15.4) | 144.0 (-21.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -20.4 (+12.6) | 141.3 (-18.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 12-8 |
| Home | 15-1 | 7-6 |
| Away | 6-3 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 82.8 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#131) | -6.8 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#104) | -0.54 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#98) | -0.73 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.688 (#53) | 0.562 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.5% | 67.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.9% | 8.8% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
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