Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | STAN -1800 MTST +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +9 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -19.4 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (-3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -16.5 (-7.5) | 141.4 (+3.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -18.0 (-9.0) | 142.3 (+2.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -17.5 (-8.5) | 143.3 (+1.7) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-6 | 11-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#71) | -2.6 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#57) | -2.96 (#355) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#46) | -4.17 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.969 (#3) | 0.271 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 50.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 25.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 15.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 58.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.7% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 79.0% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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