Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | BRAD -3000 UTM +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +11 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | BRAD -8.9 (-19.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -8.0 (-19.0) | 136.3 (+8.7) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -9.5 (-20.5) | 138.0 (+7.0) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -8.5 (-19.5) | 137.6 (+7.4) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 64.7 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#103) | 6.0 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#189) | 1.54 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#171) | 2.08 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.688 (#53) | 0.500 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 49.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 27.6% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 56.0% |
Game Analysis
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