Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | USU -10000 WEB +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +10 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | USU -12.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -7.8 (+2.2) | 149.6 (+6.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -10.7 (-0.7) | 146.7 (+9.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -7.1 (+2.9) | 151.6 (+4.4) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2022 | WEB 75 – 72 USU |
| Dec 16, 2021 | USU 95 – 80 WEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-1 | 11-5 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#94) | 3.3 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#68) | -0.38 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#82) | -0.38 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#26) | 0.500 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 46.2% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 52.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 17.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 24.2% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 38.9% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.3% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 62.2% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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