Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +15 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -1.2 (-13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (+31.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -1.1 (-13.9) | 142.0 (+33.0) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WEB -1.8 (-16.8) | 143.1 (+31.9) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WEB -1.5 (-16.5) | 143.3 (+31.7) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WEB -2.0 (-17.0) | 144.1 (+30.9) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 13, 2025 | USU 83 – 73 WEB |
| Dec 20, 2022 | WEB 75 – 72 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WEB | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-6 | 9-7 |
| Away | 8-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 67.0 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#109) | 9.4 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#54) | 1.62 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#66) | 2.67 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#87) | 0.584 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WEB | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 19.6% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.9% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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