Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -31.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +35 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -25.9 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -21.8 (+13.2) | 142.6 (+8.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -19.8 (+15.2) | 141.5 (+9.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -24.1 (+10.9) | 144.1 (+6.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -24.9 (+10.1) | 141.0 (+10.0) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.7 | 65.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#32) | -5.0 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#191) | -0.66 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#189) | -0.82 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#243) | 0.396 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 25.1% |
| ORB% | 45.3% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 59.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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