Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | VAL -135 NICH +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +5 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | NICH -0.1 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NICH -2.4 (+7.4) | 139.5 (-8.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -0.3 (+4.7) | 135.6 (-4.6) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -0.5 (+4.5) | 136.5 (-5.5) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NICH -1.3 (+6.3) | 141.7 (-10.7) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-10 |
| Home | 13-4 | 6-6 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 75.7 |
| Massey | -10.5 (#335) | 0.4 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#171) | -1.04 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#191) | -1.42 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#157) | 0.250 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 31.1% | 29.8% |
| 3PT% | 23.1% | 16.0% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 37.3% | 33.3% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 41.2% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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