Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -30.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | NCSU -100000 UNCG +4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +46 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -31.8 (+14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | NCSU -24.3 (+21.7) | 158.0 (+16.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -31.3 (+14.7) | 158.2 (+15.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -28.8 (+17.2) | 158.6 (+15.4) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-4 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 81.9 |
| Massey | 14.0 (#15) | -6.9 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#147) | -1.82 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#148) | -2.29 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#157) | 0.500 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 56.0% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 41.4% | 39.2% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.00 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 67.6% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 41.7% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 62.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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