Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | TAR -215 MRMK +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +14 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -17.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.9 (-20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -9.1 (+4.9) | 147.6 (-9.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | TAR -6.7 (+7.3) | 142.1 (-4.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | TAR -7.6 (+6.4) | 146.4 (-8.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -9.2 (+4.8) | 149.3 (-11.3) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 17-3 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-0 |
| Away | 4-11 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 66.5 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#271) | -9.7 (#328) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#177) | -1.37 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#176) | -1.92 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#123) | 0.312 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 30.4% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 26.2% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 27.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 37.5% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 44.4% | 34.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 63.6% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 50.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 47.4% | 39.5% |
Game Analysis
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