Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 172.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -5000 PENN +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +25 | 187 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -6.7 (+18.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.7 (+15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -3.8 (+21.2) | 154.1 (+32.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -6.9 (+18.1) | 156.0 (+31.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -4.1 (+20.9) | 157.1 (+29.9) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 9-5 |
| Home | 10-6 | 12-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.3 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.0 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#230) | 2.9 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#217) | -0.70 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#194) | -0.97 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#117) | 0.125 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 42.9% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 48.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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