Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -33.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARMY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +55 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | ARMY -0.8 (-55.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (+23.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -2.8 (-52.2) | 140.7 (+32.3) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -3.6 (-51.4) | 141.8 (+31.2) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -8.6 (-46.4) | 145.2 (+27.8) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2024 | DUKE 100 – 58 ARMY |
| Nov 13, 2021 | DUKE 82 – 56 ARMY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARMY | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 35-3 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 17-1 |
| Home | 6-10 | 15-0 |
| Away | 5-10 | 10-1 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#167) | 12.2 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#293) | 1.42 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#300) | 2.17 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.125 (#331) | 0.688 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARMY | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 44.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 40.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 34.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.2% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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