Betting Lines
| Spread | URI -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | URI -3000 STO +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | URI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | URI +23 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | URI -7.4 (+15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | URI -6.8 (+16.2) | 138.3 (-1.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | URI -7.6 (+15.4) | 139.9 (-2.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | URI -8.1 (+14.9) | 141.3 (-4.3) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | URI | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#193) | 4.5 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#240) | -0.39 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#239) | -0.48 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.281 (#300) | 0.500 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | URI | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 40.7% | 16.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 41.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.1% | 9.0% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 80.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 33.9% |
Game Analysis
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