Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | DUQ -1000 QUC +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +6 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | DUQ -17.3 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -13.1 (-7.1) | 149.1 (+18.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -15.1 (-9.1) | 151.1 (+16.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -16.9 (-10.9) | 150.8 (+17.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-6 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 84.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 83.8 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#125) | -2.1 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#59) | -1.59 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#52) | -2.21 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.917 (#12) | 0.125 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 52.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 50.0% | 32.3% |
Game Analysis
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