You'll work harder with a gun in your back, for a bowl of rice a day. "Holiday In Cambodia" - The Dead Kennedys
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–11 on winners spread MAE 7.1 51 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Old Dominion @ Charlotte +3.8 137.2 69% 67–71 ✓
Maine @ New Hampshire +13.0 132.8 87% 61–73 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Marist +4.4 131.1 69% 69–62 ✗
Boston University @ Lafayette -4.8 135.8 28% 81–62 ✓
SMU @ South Florida -6.5 132.3 26% 74–54 ✓
Army @ Lehigh +0.2 144.0 51% 71–84 ✓
Holy Cross @ American University +4.3 136.8 67% 49–67 ✓
Navy @ Bucknell -9.5 135.9 17% 81–63 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Longwood +10.1 140.2 82% 71–79 ✓
Radford @ High Point +3.8 133.1 65% 58–63 ✓
Presbyterian @ Charleston Southern -5.3 133.1 25% 62–61 ✓
Hampton @ Campbell +9.7 128.7 83% 60–75 ✓
Miami @ Virginia Tech +4.2 136.3 66% 78–75 ✗
Boston College @ North Carolina +10.9 146.4 87% 47–58 ✓
Vermont @ Stony Brook -5.4 146.0 32% 80–67 ✓
NJIT @ UMBC +7.3 136.5 78% 69–73 ✓
Binghamton @ Hartford +0.4 141.5 53% 60–72 ✓
UAlbany @ UMass Lowell +3.5 128.9 64% 64–62 ✗
Bradley @ Valparaiso -1.7 139.4 44% 71–56 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Evansville -10.1 137.7 18% 64–59 ✓
Massachusetts @ La Salle +0.6 154.1 52% 77–71 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ George Mason +2.0 134.6 62% 66–75 ✓
Duquesne @ Saint Joseph's +4.5 139.8 69% 61–72 ✓
Wofford @ Chattanooga +6.3 140.6 76% 60–71 ✓
VMI @ Furman +9.9 154.8 83% 64–79 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ East Tennessee State +2.8 131.9 63% 80–76 ✗
Western Carolina @ The Citadel +4.1 153.9 68% 66–68 ✓
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina +1.6 132.1 57% 61–70 ✓
Arkansas @ Ole Miss -4.0 140.9 35% 64–55 ✓
Iowa State @ Oklahoma State +1.5 128.3 54% 84–81 ✗
UCF @ Wichita State +2.0 140.9 62% 79–84 ✓
Tarleton State @ Lamar -8.0 131.5 22% 62–57 ✓
Abilene Christian @ UT Rio Grande Valley -3.8 150.2 32% 87–85 ✓
Oklahoma @ West Virginia +2.5 133.2 60% 72–62 ✗
Drake @ Illinois State -1.7 150.5 41% 89–88 ✓
George Washington @ Saint Louis +14.9 142.7 89% 67–80 ✓
Mercer @ Samford +0.7 148.3 52% 61–75 ✓
Marquette @ Seton Hall +3.9 149.4 64% 73–63 ✗
VCU @ Davidson +5.0 133.0 73% 70–68 ✗
Penn State @ Indiana +6.9 131.7 75% 57–74 ✓
Texas A&M @ LSU +11.0 128.8 84% 64–70 ✓
Tulsa @ Tulane +4.2 142.4 69% 63–97 ✓
NC State @ Notre Dame +6.6 146.5 77% 65–73 ✓
Florida State @ Georgia Tech -5.1 139.6 27% 61–75 ✗
Utah @ Washington State +8.2 135.3 79% 54–71 ✓
Sam Houston @ California Baptist +0.4 139.1 52% 73–68 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Seattle U +4.2 141.6 72% 62–70 ✓
San Diego State @ Utah State +0.3 130.5 49% 57–75 ✓
Wisconsin @ Nebraska -10.5 149.6 16% 73–65 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Florida Gulf Coast +3.6 152.4 67% 73–77 ✓
Arkansas State @ App State +1.4 135.7 61% 54–61 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.