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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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25–12 on winners spread MAE 8.5 37 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Clemson @ Duke +11.1 149.5 87% 69–71 ✓
Michigan State @ Illinois +3.9 146.4 67% 55–56 ✓
DePaul @ Villanova +13.5 139.0 88% 43–67 ✓
Wright State @ Northern Kentucky -0.6 144.3 46% 63–73 ✗
William & Mary @ Charleston +11.5 153.5 87% 73–74 ✓
Fordham @ Dayton +11.9 130.2 85% 61–68 ✓
Columbia @ Yale +14.1 150.4 89% 72–83 ✓
Siena @ Iona +15.2 142.7 89% 57–74 ✓
Cincinnati @ Temple -1.6 136.3 47% 58–61 ✗
Missouri State @ Indiana State -6.8 145.4 25% 72–76 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Ohio +12.8 141.5 88% 62–74 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Bowling Green +3.6 154.9 67% 71–85 ✓
Akron @ Central Michigan -12.1 140.9 14% 60–56 ✓
Western Michigan @ Kent State +10.4 133.2 85% 64–75 ✓
Buffalo @ Toledo +8.2 156.6 80% 75–86 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Ball State -1.2 152.8 45% 64–81 ✗
Kansas State @ Baylor +12.7 136.2 87% 49–74 ✓
St. Thomas @ North Dakota State +3.5 149.5 69% 56–77 ✓
Syracuse @ Pittsburgh -3.6 142.6 37% 53–64 ✗
Southern Illinois @ Loyola Chicago +12.2 133.2 87% 47–59 ✓
Maryland @ Rutgers +1.9 135.5 63% 68–60 ✗
Auburn @ Missouri -12.1 145.9 15% 55–54 ✓
Georgetown @ UConn +16.6 156.8 90% 73–96 ✓
Mississippi State @ Kentucky +11.7 153.0 86% 74–82 ✓
Texas @ TCU +0.8 121.8 55% 73–50 ✗
Nevada @ Colorado State +11.6 151.9 87% 66–77 ✓
Fresno State @ New Mexico -3.9 141.1 33% 65–60 ✓
Wyoming @ Boise State +3.0 131.0 63% 62–65 ✓
Colorado @ Oregon +7.0 141.4 76% 82–78 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Northridge -3.2 133.7 38% 72–45 ✓
Air Force @ San José State -1.0 130.1 44% 63–53 ✓
Arizona @ UCLA -2.9 153.7 38% 59–75 ✗
Florida @ Tennessee +8.2 137.1 80% 71–78 ✓
Winthrop @ South Carolina Upstate +0.1 143.9 51% 95–91 ✗
Providence @ Xavier +6.4 140.7 74% 65–62 ✗
Creighton @ Butler -5.6 130.6 30% 55–72 ✗
Northwestern @ Michigan +6.1 145.2 74% 70–72 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.