Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -5.0 Push |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | UNM +190 FRES -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +5 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | FRES -4.3 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (-16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -5.5 (+0.5) | 139.7 (-14.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -3.9 (-1.1) | 141.1 (-16.1) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -4.2 (-0.8) | 140.6 (-15.6) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -4.8 (-0.2) | 140.3 (-15.3) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | UNM 80 – 78 FRES |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UNM 83 – 74 FRES |
| Jan 20, 2025 | UNM 95 – 67 FRES |
| Jan 1, 2025 | UNM 103 – 89 FRES |
| Mar 7, 2024 | UNM 79 – 58 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 5-12 | 8-9 |
| Home | 11-7 | 14-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 59.6 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#153) | 8.3 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#181) | 1.29 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#170) | 1.80 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#145) | 0.562 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 77.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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