Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -1700 GTWN +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +23 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -20.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (+12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -15.5 (+7.5) | 155.4 (+13.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -16.6 (+6.4) | 156.8 (+12.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -17.7 (+5.3) | 157.3 (+11.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -16.9 (+6.1) | 155.6 (+13.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | CONN 67 – 51 GTWN |
| Feb 15, 2026 | CONN 79 – 75 GTWN |
| Jan 17, 2026 | CONN 64 – 62 GTWN |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CONN 93 – 79 GTWN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | CONN 68 – 60 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 0-19 |
| Home | 14-2 | 6-11 |
| Away | 5-5 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L21 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 15.9 (#14) | -0.8 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.96 (#14) | -0.47 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.88 (#14) | -0.44 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#26) | 0.464 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 42.2 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 37.9% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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