Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.0 Under |
| Money | SJSU -125 AF +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +10 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | SJSU -0.4 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -0.4 (-9.6) | 125.0 (-9.0) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -1.0 (-9.0) | 130.1 (-14.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AF -0.7 (-9.3) | 130.7 (-14.7) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -1.1 (-8.9) | 128.8 (-12.8) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | SJSU 86 – 80 AF |
| Jan 14, 2026 | SJSU 70 – 62 AF |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SJSU 75 – 64 AF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SJSU 69 – 62 AF |
| Feb 14, 2024 | SJSU 73 – 66 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 4-13 |
| Home | 7-9 | 7-6 |
| Away | 1-13 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.5 | 59.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 66.0 |
| Massey | -6.2 (#274) | -3.2 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#194) | 0.16 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#219) | -0.12 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#184) | 0.488 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 27.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 5.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 19.7% |
| FT Rate | 15.1% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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