Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | INST +180 MOST -220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -6.8 (+10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -6.7 (+10.7) | 142.9 (+5.1) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -6.8 (+10.8) | 145.4 (+2.6) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -6.7 (+10.7) | 145.7 (+2.3) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -6.4 (+10.4) | 145.4 (+2.6) | 25% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2025 | INST 72 – 67 MOST |
| Dec 8, 2024 | INST 80 – 77 MOST |
| Mar 8, 2024 | INST 75 – 59 MOST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | INST 73 – 71 MOST |
| Jan 17, 2024 | INST 88 – 66 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-6 | 12-4 |
| Away | 2-11 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#179) | 9.6 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#245) | 1.05 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#239) | 1.84 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#252) | 0.557 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 18.8% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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