Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.0 Over |
| Money | TOL -200 BUF +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +11 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -7.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -6.9 (+4.1) | 157.0 (+4.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -8.2 (+2.8) | 156.6 (+4.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -7.6 (+3.4) | 158.0 (+3.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -7.8 (+3.2) | 157.4 (+3.6) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | TOL 99 – 78 BUF |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BUF 87 – 74 TOL |
| Feb 5, 2025 | TOL 87 – 74 BUF |
| Mar 2, 2024 | TOL 85 – 79 BUF |
| Jan 17, 2024 | TOL 77 – 66 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 19-11 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 13-6 |
| Home | 13-2 | 9-3 |
| Away | 9-5 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#68) | 3.7 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#59) | 0.33 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#57) | 0.71 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#56) | 0.520 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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