Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | VILL -2800 DEP +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +24 | 110 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -15.8 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (-27.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -15.8 (+8.2) | 136.2 (-26.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -13.5 (+10.5) | 139.0 (-29.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -14.2 (+9.8) | 138.4 (-28.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -15.4 (+8.6) | 138.0 (-28.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | VILL 76 – 57 DEP |
| Dec 31, 2025 | VILL 71 – 66 DEP |
| Feb 6, 2025 | VILL 59 – 49 DEP |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VILL 100 – 56 DEP |
| Mar 14, 2024 | VILL 58 – 57 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-8 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 6-14 |
| Home | 12-1 | 11-7 |
| Away | 8-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 18.3 (#10) | 5.9 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.98 (#13) | 1.12 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.92 (#13) | 1.55 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#13) | 0.532 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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