Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
| Money | ILL -135 MSU +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +1 | 111 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -6.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (-34.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -6.1 (-5.1) | 141.9 (-30.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -3.9 (-2.9) | 146.4 (-35.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -4.1 (-3.1) | 145.9 (-34.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -4.4 (-3.4) | 143.9 (-32.9) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | MSU 85 – 82 ILL |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MSU 79 – 65 ILL |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MSU 80 – 78 ILL |
| Feb 10, 2024 | MSU 88 – 80 ILL |
| Jan 12, 2024 | ILL 71 – 68 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 16.2 (#13) | 13.4 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#37) | 3.57 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.84 (#39) | 4.54 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#32) | 0.651 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 39.2% |
| REB / G | 42.1 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 38.9% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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