Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +4 | 186 | Lost |
| Massey | WIN -1.3 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (+36.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -2.4 (-1.6) | 142.1 (+43.9) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -0.1 (-4.1) | 143.9 (+42.1) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -0.1 (-3.9) | 145.2 (+40.8) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -0.4 (-4.4) | 142.6 (+43.4) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | WIN 68 – 64 UPST |
| Jan 10, 2026 | WIN 71 – 50 UPST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | WIN 105 – 95 UPST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | WIN 95 – 76 UPST |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WIN 83 – 74 UPST |
Game Analysis
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