Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +3 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -8.9 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (-10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -7.0 (-10.0) | 138.8 (-11.8) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -6.4 (-9.4) | 140.7 (-13.7) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -5.8 (-8.8) | 141.1 (-14.1) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -5.0 (-8.0) | 140.4 (-13.4) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | PROV 94 – 84 XAV |
| Jan 10, 2026 | XAV 97 – 84 PROV |
| Mar 8, 2025 | XAV 76 – 68 PROV |
| Feb 13, 2025 | XAV 91 – 82 PROV |
| Feb 22, 2024 | PROV 79 – 75 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 27-6 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 14-3 |
| Home | 16-5 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 13.8 (#20) | 8.4 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#18) | 3.60 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.48 (#20) | 3.83 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#18) | 0.646 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.8% | 15.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.