Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Under |
| Money | NDSU -450 STMN +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +21 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -3.8 (+17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (-16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -3.1 (+17.9) | 142.3 (-9.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -3.5 (+17.5) | 149.5 (-16.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -3.4 (+17.6) | 151.2 (-18.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -4.2 (+16.8) | 148.2 (-15.2) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | STMN 84 – 62 NDSU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | NDSU 68 – 65 STMN |
| Feb 2, 2025 | STMN 79 – 62 NDSU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | STMN 89 – 85 NDSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | STMN 68 – 58 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-3 | 5-8 |
| Away | 9-6 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#226) | -3.3 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#168) | -1.31 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#189) | -1.31 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#175) | 0.443 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 28.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 12.2% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 20.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 58.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.7% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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