Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | CSU -360 NEV +285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +11 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -12.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.9 (-11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -10.7 (+0.3) | 149.2 (-6.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -11.6 (-0.6) | 151.9 (-8.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -11.6 (-0.6) | 152.8 (-9.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -12.9 (-1.9) | 153.2 (-10.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | NEV 75 – 62 CSU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | CSU 67 – 59 NEV |
| Feb 19, 2025 | CSU 79 – 71 NEV |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CSU 66 – 64 NEV |
| Mar 15, 2024 | CSU 85 – 78 NEV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-6 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-1 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-3 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#36) | 1.8 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.29 (#8) | 0.93 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.87 (#15) | 1.09 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#10) | 0.565 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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