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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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23–13 on winners spread MAE 9.2 36 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
South Dakota @ Western Illinois +3.0 152.1 66% 75–72 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ George Mason +5.9 136.8 75% 71–77 ✓
Bellarmine @ Jacksonville State +8.0 141.4 78% 60–65 ✓
Florida @ Ole Miss -4.7 136.0 32% 54–70 ✗
Towson @ Delaware -0.2 148.3 51% 69–62 ✓
Lafayette @ American University +0.9 137.6 52% 69–56 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Northeastern +0.5 138.2 47% 74–68 ✗
Tennessee State @ Morehead State +11.4 140.8 87% 54–67 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Colgate +6.7 140.3 76% 52–65 ✓
Morgan State @ Norfolk State +12.2 147.9 88% 62–82 ✓
Louisville @ Virginia +2.8 127.9 64% 52–64 ✓
New Hampshire @ Maine -12.3 130.7 14% 64–71 ✗
Hartford @ Binghamton +2.8 143.6 62% 64–74 ✓
Howard @ Coppin State -2.8 152.4 37% 81–83 ✗
Jackson State @ Florida A&M -0.4 129.2 44% 64–67 ✗
Alcorn State @ Bethune-Cookman -2.7 130.2 36% 70–67 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Maryland Eastern Shore +1.7 133.8 60% 75–63 ✗
South Carolina State @ Delaware State -9.4 136.7 17% 64–62 ✓
Sacramento State @ Northern Arizona +0.7 137.3 53% 65–70 ✓
Virginia Tech @ North Carolina +2.9 141.0 62% 68–78 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Murray State +16.5 143.8 90% 53–79 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ UT Martin +0.4 143.7 51% 70–76 ✓
Alabama State @ Texas Southern +12.0 140.0 87% 66–73 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Southern +19.7 150.6 91% 72–100 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Prairie View A&M +3.1 138.6 66% 48–72 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Grambling +8.1 142.4 81% 65–76 ✓
Texas Tech @ Kansas +6.4 140.9 76% 91–94 ✓
UNLV @ San Diego State +8.9 129.4 81% 55–80 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Idaho State -8.9 143.8 19% 89–63 ✓
San Diego @ Santa Clara +9.1 146.0 81% 74–78 ✓
St. John's @ Seton Hall +10.9 156.8 84% 84–63 ✗
Weber State @ Southern Utah +1.6 153.3 62% 92–84 ✗
Idaho @ Portland State +3.8 144.3 65% 84–79 ✗
Arizona State @ USC +12.1 138.9 87% 56–78 ✓
Richmond @ Rhode Island +3.0 136.8 65% 70–63 ✗
Alabama @ Georgia -12.3 157.5 15% 76–82 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.