Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -320 JOES +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +6 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -7.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (+11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -6.2 (-0.2) | 136.9 (+11.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -5.9 (+0.1) | 136.8 (+11.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -6.2 (-0.2) | 136.5 (+11.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -5.8 (+0.2) | 136.3 (+11.7) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | JOES 81 – 63 GMU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | GMU 60 – 52 JOES |
| Mar 15, 2025 | GMU 74 – 64 JOES |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GMU 58 – 57 JOES |
| Mar 13, 2024 | JOES 64 – 57 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#107) | 0.8 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#156) | -0.07 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#149) | 0.08 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#153) | 0.499 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 78.3% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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