Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -12.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
| Money | USC -900 ASU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +22 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | USC -14.8 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -12.9 (+9.1) | 138.9 (-4.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -12.1 (+9.9) | 138.9 (-4.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -11.4 (+10.6) | 138.9 (-4.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -11.9 (+10.1) | 140.9 (-6.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | USC 88 – 75 ASU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | USC 81 – 73 ASU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ASU 82 – 67 USC |
| Mar 10, 2023 | ASU 77 – 72 USC |
| Mar 5, 2023 | USC 68 – 65 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 13-3 | 9-6 |
| Away | 9-3 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#25) | 1.0 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#21) | 0.35 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.16 (#31) | 0.03 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#27) | 0.523 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 41.9 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.8% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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