Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | NORF -340 MORG +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +20 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -14.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -9.8 (+10.2) | 148.0 (-4.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -12.2 (+7.8) | 147.9 (-3.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -13.2 (+6.8) | 147.9 (-3.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -13.6 (+6.4) | 148.7 (-4.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2026 | MORG 90 – 84 NORF |
| Jan 27, 2026 | MORG 79 – 78 NORF |
| Mar 14, 2025 | NORF 58 – 55 MORG |
| Feb 25, 2025 | NORF 69 – 60 MORG |
| Jan 14, 2025 | MORG 78 – 74 NORF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-7 | 13-15 |
| Conference | 12-2 | 7-6 |
| Home | 11-0 | 8-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.6 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#204) | -12.4 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#126) | -2.22 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#128) | -2.77 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#162) | 0.388 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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