Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
| Money | UNC -230 VT +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +10 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -1.7 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -3.8 (+6.2) | 139.1 (+6.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -2.9 (+7.1) | 141.0 (+5.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -2.4 (+7.6) | 141.6 (+4.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -2.5 (+7.5) | 140.9 (+5.1) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UNC 89 – 82 VT |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UNC 91 – 59 VT |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UNC 96 – 81 VT |
| Dec 4, 2022 | VT 80 – 72 UNC |
| Mar 12, 2022 | VT 72 – 59 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-10 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-3 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#53) | 11.1 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#63) | 0.79 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#59) | 1.36 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#37) | 0.537 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 80.4% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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