Betting Lines
| Spread | NAU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
| Money | NAU -180 SAC +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | NAU -2.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAC -0.2 (+5.2) | 137.5 (-2.5) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -0.7 (+4.3) | 137.3 (-2.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAU -0.3 (+4.7) | 137.5 (-2.5) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAC -0.5 (+5.5) | 138.8 (-3.8) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | NAU 79 – 74 SAC |
| Jan 16, 2026 | SAC 83 – 69 NAU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NAU 65 – 61 SAC |
| Jan 17, 2025 | NAU 77 – 53 SAC |
| Feb 16, 2024 | NAU 73 – 58 SAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 6-14 |
| Home | 5-10 | 6-8 |
| Away | 3-11 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -10.1 (#322) | -8.7 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#311) | -1.78 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.07 (#306) | -1.67 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#286) | 0.420 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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