Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | AMER -125 LAF +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +13 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | AMER -0.3 (-13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.5 (-12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -0.4 (-12.6) | 137.6 (-12.6) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -0.9 (-13.9) | 137.6 (-12.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -0.7 (-13.7) | 137.3 (-12.3) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -0.4 (-13.4) | 137.7 (-12.7) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | AMER 75 – 61 LAF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | LAF 67 – 65 AMER |
| Mar 7, 2025 | AMER 71 – 69 LAF |
| Feb 10, 2025 | AMER 60 – 58 LAF |
| Jan 30, 2025 | AMER 75 – 68 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-5 | 6-9 |
| Away | 4-16 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -13.1 (#340) | -10.0 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#309) | -2.14 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#302) | -2.69 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.403 (#322) | 0.419 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 14.8% | 12.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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