Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -210 LOU +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +12 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -4.3 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.5 (-2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -3.9 (+8.1) | 121.4 (-5.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -2.8 (+9.2) | 127.9 (-11.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -3.5 (+8.5) | 126.5 (-10.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -4.0 (+8.0) | 124.3 (-8.3) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | UVA 79 – 70 LOU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | LOU 81 – 67 UVA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | LOU 70 – 50 UVA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UVA 69 – 52 LOU |
| Jan 4, 2024 | UVA 77 – 53 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-7 | 8-8 |
| Away | 7-6 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.1 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#99) | 4.1 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#112) | 0.74 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#106) | 0.78 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#117) | 0.546 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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