Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | SDSU -650 UNLV +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +25 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -10.2 (+14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.2 (+13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -11.8 (+13.2) | 130.4 (+4.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -8.9 (+16.1) | 129.4 (+5.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -9.7 (+15.3) | 129.1 (+5.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -9.7 (+15.3) | 130.6 (+4.4) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | SDSU 89 – 86 UNLV |
| Jan 24, 2026 | SDSU 82 – 71 UNLV |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UNLV 74 – 67 SDSU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | UNLV 76 – 68 SDSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | SDSU 74 – 71 UNLV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-9 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.1 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#48) | 3.0 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#42) | 0.53 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#42) | 0.89 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.616 (#23) | 0.520 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.8% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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