The black queen chants the funeral march, the cracked brass bells will ring / To summon back the fire witch to the court of the crimson king "The Court of the Crimson King" - King Crimson
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–17 on winners spread MAE 9.3 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Gardner-Webb @ High Point +8.0 151.4 78% 55–96 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Utah +6.8 145.9 73% 62–83 ✓
Missouri State @ Southern Illinois -0.2 139.8 45% 78–88 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Illinois State +1.1 141.3 55% 85–84 ✗
Nevada @ Fresno State -11.6 147.7 16% 77–66 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Mississippi Valley State -11.7 143.7 12% 74–65 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Lamar +6.0 127.7 68% 72–63 ✗
Villanova @ St. John's +6.7 148.1 79% 68–80 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Purdue Fort Wayne +11.7 146.2 87% 67–90 ✓
Northeastern @ Stony Brook -6.3 138.5 28% 70–66 ✓
San Francisco @ Santa Clara +2.9 151.6 68% 54–77 ✓
Alabama @ Texas A&M +1.8 159.1 45% 94–88 ✗
Indiana @ Iowa +5.1 158.7 72% 60–85 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Montana State +4.3 144.2 70% 53–58 ✓
Weber State @ Idaho State +5.5 142.6 73% 77–69 ✗
UL Monroe @ Louisiana +5.2 140.3 65% 68–71 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal Poly -1.8 151.4 38% 75–72 ✓
South Dakota @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +10.6 169.9 84% 104–119 ✓
North Dakota @ Oral Roberts -2.3 156.8 45% 79–83 ✗
Liberty @ Louisiana Tech -2.4 135.5 41% 74–79 ✗
Kentucky @ Mississippi State +5.0 160.2 67% 95–90 ✗
UT Arlington @ Southern Utah +0.5 150.3 60% 68–73 ✓
Washington State @ Gonzaga +13.8 159.9 84% 75–88 ✓
Boise State @ Utah State +6.9 146.5 78% 79–81 ✓
Tarleton State @ Utah Tech +3.2 134.4 60% 54–58 ✓
New Mexico State @ UTEP +5.9 141.1 73% 85–57 ✗
Baylor @ Arizona State -1.0 140.0 46% 72–66 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Bakersfield -2.6 145.9 36% 90–94 ✗
UC Irvine @ UC San Diego +3.9 141.7 66% 60–52 ✗
Saint Mary's @ San Diego -14.2 135.7 14% 103–56 ✓
Oregon State @ Pacific -11.4 143.1 20% 91–55 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Seattle U +7.2 137.2 77% 64–66 ✓
UCF @ Arizona +16.6 156.2 89% 80–88 ✓
Michigan State @ Northwestern -1.7 139.8 40% 78–68 ✓
Nebraska @ Purdue +6.2 139.8 74% 68–104 ✓
VMI @ Chattanooga +7.7 149.8 80% 66–91 ✓
Rider @ Niagara +5.8 134.7 70% 68–65 ✗
Saint Francis @ Fairleigh Dickinson +3.8 149.7 57% 75–71 ✗
Long Island University @ Central Connecticut +7.0 127.5 74% 54–52 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Iona -1.2 135.9 46% 63–62 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Canisius -5.9 132.0 27% 62–49 ✓
Washington @ Michigan +17.0 151.6 89% 75–91 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Le Moyne +2.1 137.6 59% 63–79 ✓
Stonehill @ Chicago State -4.7 133.9 26% 68–52 ✓
Wright State @ Robert Morris +0.3 148.0 51% 72–75 ✓
Fairfield @ Marist +9.1 134.5 81% 51–61 ✓
Manhattan @ Merrimack +5.1 141.3 70% 62–69 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Mount St. Mary's +5.9 145.5 74% 71–73 ✓
West Virginia @ Colorado -1.8 133.7 47% 78–70 ✓
Charlotte @ Tulsa +0.3 145.6 51% 63–69 ✓
Mercer @ Western Carolina -7.6 148.7 27% 82–85 ✗
Oregon @ Penn State +0.4 151.5 55% 82–81 ✗
UAB @ Florida Atlantic +5.1 163.4 66% 81–76 ✗
Southern Indiana @ Little Rock +4.9 132.4 66% 58–78 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.