I remember one night the kid cut off his right arm in a bid to save a bit of power. "So It Goes" - Nick Lowe
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–16 on winners spread MAE 9.7 52 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Washington @ Colorado State +4.5 152.5 68% 81–86 ✓
Austin Peay @ Tennessee State +10.0 137.4 83% 65–69 ✓
Sacramento State @ Long Beach State +12.6 150.1 86% 73–83 ✓
Milwaukee @ Green Bay +9.1 140.5 83% 58–70 ✓
Yale @ Vermont +4.5 137.4 70% 65–66 ✓
Western Carolina @ Gardner-Webb -1.0 135.9 50% 77–82 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Merrimack -2.0 140.1 46% 68–74 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Marshall +5.6 147.1 68% 79–74 ✗
Santa Clara @ California -1.0 146.3 52% 69–84 ✗
George Mason @ Toledo +5.6 146.3 69% 86–77 ✗
Temple @ Saint Joseph's +4.1 145.7 73% 65–74 ✓
Wofford @ Middle Tennessee +5.5 138.7 67% 74–64 ✗
Rhode Island @ Providence +13.2 140.9 87% 69–84 ✓
Tulsa @ Oral Roberts +1.5 143.5 53% 70–79 ✓
Lindenwood @ Idaho State +10.1 131.7 84% 70–76 ✓
Dartmouth @ UAlbany +14.4 140.1 88% 68–73 ✓
UT Arlington @ Grand Canyon +12.3 151.3 85% 69–76 ✓
New Mexico State @ New Mexico +24.5 154.3 91% 62–106 ✓
UC Irvine @ Utah State +6.4 139.3 72% 69–79 ✓
Utah Valley @ Utah Tech +2.7 139.4 66% 53–65 ✓
Gonzaga @ USC -0.6 143.3 48% 89–76 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Nevada +14.9 144.7 86% 59–73 ✓
Brown @ Maine +7.5 139.8 71% 49–60 ✓
Columbia @ New Hampshire +5.5 144.6 68% 71–80 ✓
Siena @ Mount St. Mary's +10.2 130.9 87% 48–80 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Canisius +4.9 134.0 68% 54–52 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Cincinnati +20.3 147.6 89% 62–99 ✓
Tulane @ Fordham +2.6 146.3 49% 89–81 ✗
Auburn @ App State +2.2 139.9 53% 64–69 ✓
Coppin State @ Navy +11.1 123.8 87% 52–75 ✓
Longwood @ Morgan State -8.5 145.6 20% 88–54 ✓
Clemson @ Pittsburgh +3.6 144.8 66% 79–70 ✗
Stetson @ Chicago State -4.5 139.7 38% 54–77 ✗
South Dakota @ Western Illinois -0.8 146.1 37% 70–68 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Niagara +1.4 150.3 59% 75–68 ✗
Manhattan @ Marist +9.5 134.6 86% 56–70 ✓
Fairfield @ Rider +2.5 137.8 44% 88–81 ✗
Elon @ Radford +9.7 146.8 80% 72–82 ✓
Murray State @ Illinois State +5.0 137.1 71% 72–76 ✓
San Francisco @ Arizona State +0.2 132.9 55% 61–72 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Jacksonville State +6.4 127.0 69% 61–59 ✗
East Texas A&M @ SMU +11.9 132.1 84% 47–90 ✓
Wichita State @ Missouri +3.7 142.7 65% 72–82 ✓
Creighton @ Nebraska +0.5 145.5 44% 89–60 ✗
Southern @ Mississippi State +22.0 139.8 90% 60–59 ✗
Louisville @ Virginia Tech +13.1 146.4 84% 68–75 ✓
Air Force @ Portland +3.3 137.4 62% 80–58 ✗
Chattanooga @ Morehead State +5.6 132.9 74% 80–87 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Western Kentucky +10.8 142.3 81% 69–79 ✓
Pepperdine @ Colorado +14.6 153.0 86% 66–91 ✓
Lamar @ Sam Houston +4.1 152.8 70% 70–90 ✓
Minnesota @ Ohio State +11.4 142.4 84% 74–84 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.