Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
| Money | CIN -2000 FGCU +1050 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +37 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -22.7 (+14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (+13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -18.0 (+19.0) | 145.1 (+15.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -18.7 (+18.3) | 146.1 (+14.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -20.3 (+16.7) | 147.6 (+13.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -20.6 (+16.4) | 143.6 (+17.4) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-15 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-8 |
| Home | 16-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#20) | -4.3 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#19) | -1.96 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.83 (#12) | -3.05 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#40) | 0.423 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.94 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 12.4% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 80.7% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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