Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -26.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +1 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | MSST -25.1 (-26.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (-23.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -21.6 (-22.6) | 140.0 (-21.0) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -18.4 (-19.4) | 138.0 (-19.0) | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -22.0 (-23.0) | 139.8 (-20.8) | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -21.1 (-22.1) | 141.0 (-22.0) | 89% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-2 |
| Away | 2-8 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#27) | -7.3 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.37 (#9) | -0.47 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.04 (#9) | -0.62 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.709 (#3) | 0.504 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 28.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 21.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 13.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.6% | 59.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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