Trouble's gonna come to you "Your Time is Gonna Come" - Led Zeppelin
Humphrey Coliseum · December 3, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread MSST -26.0 Away covered
O/U 142.0 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total MSST win
Actual SOU +1 119 Lost
Massey MSST -25.1 (-26.1) — —
Massey Totals — 142.9 (-23.9) —
Bradley-Terry — — 99% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 100% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ MSST -21.6 (-22.6) 140.0 (-21.0) 89% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML MSST -18.4 (-19.4) 138.0 (-19.0) 91% ✗
Baseline ML MSST -22.0 (-23.0) 139.8 (-20.8) 90% ✗
Baseline Plus ML MSST -21.1 (-22.1) 141.0 (-22.0) 89% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MSST SOU
Overall 21-14 18-14
Conference 8-10 12-6
Home 11-4 11-2
Away 2-8 7-11
Neutral 8-2 0-1
Last 5 4-1 0-5
Streak L2 L2
Avg Pts For 74.1 67.9
Avg Pts Against 69.1 70.6
Massey 11.9 (#27) -7.3 (#305)
Bradley-Terry 3.37 (#9) -0.47 (#230)
W. Bradley-Terry 5.04 (#9) -0.62 (#224)
RPI 0.709 (#3) 0.504 (#170)
Shooting & Four Factors MSST SOU
FG% 41.6% 42.2%
3PT% 29.6% 31.4%
REB / G 43.0 28.7
OREB / G 12.3 8.3
AST / TO 0.97 0.84
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.1% 48.0%
TOV% 18.8% 19.7%
ORB% 32.6% 21.5%
FT Rate 25.9% 13.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 40.6% 59.0%
Opp TOV% 17.9% 21.1%
DRB% 76.5% 63.3%
Opp FT Rate 21.1% 30.4%

Game Analysis

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