Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | USU -250 UCI +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +10 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | USU -6.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (+10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -6.0 (+4.0) | 139.5 (+8.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -6.6 (+3.4) | 139.5 (+8.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -6.4 (+3.6) | 139.3 (+8.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -5.9 (+4.1) | 140.7 (+7.3) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 17-3 |
| Home | 14-1 | 13-0 |
| Away | 8-4 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#41) | 8.9 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#28) | 1.82 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.33 (#35) | 2.43 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#30) | 0.583 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.0% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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