Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
Murphy Center · December 3, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread MTSU -7.5 Away covered
O/U 135.5 Over
Money MTSU -300 / WOF +300
Model Predictions
Spread Total MTSU win
Actual WOF +10 138 Lost
Massey MTSU -7.3 (-17.3) — —
Massey Totals — 142.3 (-4.3) —
Bradley-Terry — — 83% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 97% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ MTSU -6.1 (-16.1) 137.3 (+0.7) 68% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML MTSU -5.1 (-15.1) 138.5 (-0.5) 69% ✗
Baseline ML MTSU -5.5 (-15.5) 138.7 (-0.7) 67% ✗
Baseline Plus ML MTSU -6.1 (-16.1) 140.0 (-2.0) 68% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MTSU WOF
Overall 14-19 17-15
Conference 7-9 10-8
Home 11-6 11-2
Away 1-10 6-9
Neutral 2-3 0-4
Last 5 1-4 0-5
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 64.4 73.1
Avg Pts Against 71.3 75.3
Massey -3.6 (#241) -5.0 (#262)
Bradley-Terry -0.61 (#236) -1.00 (#264)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.15 (#180) -1.88 (#279)
RPI 0.503 (#172) 0.411 (#299)
Shooting & Four Factors MTSU WOF
FG% 39.3% 42.7%
3PT% 26.2% 32.0%
REB / G 33.6 38.2
OREB / G 11.9 11.2
AST / TO 0.60 1.06
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 44.1% 50.1%
TOV% 20.1% 18.0%
ORB% 32.3% 29.4%
FT Rate 25.1% 23.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.5% 53.5%
Opp TOV% 19.3% 12.3%
DRB% 71.7% 74.7%
Opp FT Rate 16.4% 40.6%

Game Analysis

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