Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | MTSU -300 WOF +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WOF +10 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | MTSU -7.3 (-17.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -6.1 (-16.1) | 137.3 (+0.7) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -5.1 (-15.1) | 138.5 (-0.5) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -5.5 (-15.5) | 138.7 (-0.7) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -6.1 (-16.1) | 140.0 (-2.0) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-6 | 11-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.4 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#241) | -5.0 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#236) | -1.00 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#180) | -1.88 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#172) | 0.411 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 26.2% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 12.3% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 40.6% |
Game Analysis
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