Betting Lines
| Spread | SCU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | CAL +140 SCU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +15 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | SCU -1.3 (+16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SCU -3.6 (+18.6) | 141.5 (+11.5) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SCU -1.5 (+16.5) | 145.5 (+7.5) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SCU -1.0 (+16.0) | 146.3 (+6.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SCU -2.3 (+17.3) | 146.6 (+6.4) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2022 | SCU 71 – 62 CAL |
| Dec 12, 2021 | CAL 72 – 60 SCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | SCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-6 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 72.3 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#248) | 3.1 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.22 (#322) | 1.88 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.85 (#312) | 2.35 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.402 (#309) | 0.558 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | SCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 37.9% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.3% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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