Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Over |
| Money | COLO -2400 PEPP +1150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +25 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -13.9 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.7 (-0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -12.9 (+12.1) | 147.1 (+9.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -13.9 (+11.1) | 151.6 (+5.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -14.6 (+10.4) | 153.0 (+4.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -14.9 (+10.1) | 150.8 (+6.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 5-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 9-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#50) | 0.7 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#147) | -1.65 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#151) | -2.03 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#127) | 0.393 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.9% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 40.5% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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