Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | SMU -2000 ETAM +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +43 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -15.5 (+27.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -12.7 (+30.3) | 137.6 (-0.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -11.3 (+31.7) | 133.0 (+4.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -11.9 (+31.1) | 132.1 (+4.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -12.2 (+30.8) | 135.2 (+1.8) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2022 | SMU 77 – 60 ETAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-7 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#110) | -6.1 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#161) | -0.15 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#140) | -0.80 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#140) | 0.521 (#142) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 26.5% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.2% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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