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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
40–11 on winners
spread MAE 7.1
51 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+3.9 | 138.0 | 71% | 67–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.6 | 132.7 | 87% | 61–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.2 | 132.7 | 68% | 69–62 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.6 | 137.0 | 32% | 81–62 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.5 | 132.8 | 30% | 74–54 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.7 | 144.2 | 54% | 71–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.1 | 137.9 | 64% | 49–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.1 | 137.3 | 19% | 81–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.0 | 140.2 | 81% | 71–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.9 | 133.1 | 66% | 58–63 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.1 | 132.7 | 29% | 62–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.7 | 126.8 | 82% | 60–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.2 | 138.0 | 67% | 78–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.2 | 145.4 | 86% | 47–58 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.4 | 147.8 | 29% | 80–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.3 | 136.8 | 78% | 69–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.3 | 141.5 | 54% | 60–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.4 | 129.9 | 65% | 64–62 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.0 | 140.2 | 43% | 71–56 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.3 | 137.6 | 18% | 64–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 153.9 | 47% | 77–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.9 | 135.5 | 61% | 66–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 139.2 | 70% | 61–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.3 | 140.7 | 75% | 60–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.6 | 155.1 | 82% | 64–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 132.3 | 59% | 80–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.1 | 154.6 | 71% | 66–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 132.7 | 53% | 61–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.9 | 141.7 | 36% | 64–55 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.2 | 129.4 | 51% | 84–81 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.0 | 141.5 | 62% | 79–84 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.8 | 132.1 | 22% | 62–57 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.2 | 151.0 | 31% | 87–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 133.5 | 60% | 72–62 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.3 | 151.6 | 36% | 89–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.3 | 141.2 | 89% | 67–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.0 | 148.6 | 47% | 61–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 150.7 | 64% | 73–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.7 | 133.2 | 70% | 70–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.0 | 132.5 | 74% | 57–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.1 | 129.5 | 85% | 64–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 142.6 | 70% | 63–97 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.5 | 145.1 | 75% | 65–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.9 | 140.5 | 34% | 61–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.1 | 134.8 | 78% | 54–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.3 | 141.2 | 43% | 73–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.1 | 140.9 | 72% | 62–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 130.5 | 45% | 57–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.5 | 149.4 | 15% | 73–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 152.5 | 67% | 73–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.0 | 137.5 | 58% | 54–61 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.