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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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26–11 on winners spread MAE 8.5 37 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Clemson @ Duke +11.1 147.8 86% 69–71 ✓
Michigan State @ Illinois +4.1 145.9 74% 55–56 ✓
DePaul @ Villanova +14.2 138.4 87% 43–67 ✓
Wright State @ Northern Kentucky -0.3 146.4 47% 63–73 ✗
William & Mary @ Charleston +11.6 153.4 87% 73–74 ✓
Fordham @ Dayton +11.5 130.5 85% 61–68 ✓
Columbia @ Yale +14.7 150.5 88% 72–83 ✓
Siena @ Iona +16.2 142.5 89% 57–74 ✓
Cincinnati @ Temple -1.8 137.6 38% 58–61 ✗
Missouri State @ Indiana State -6.7 145.7 28% 72–76 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Ohio +13.4 143.0 88% 62–74 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Bowling Green +3.5 155.0 65% 71–85 ✓
Akron @ Central Michigan -11.5 142.6 15% 60–56 ✓
Western Michigan @ Kent State +10.8 134.4 83% 64–75 ✓
Buffalo @ Toledo +7.6 158.0 80% 75–86 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Ball State -1.7 153.4 52% 64–81 ✗
Kansas State @ Baylor +13.4 135.5 88% 49–74 ✓
St. Thomas @ North Dakota State +3.4 151.2 67% 56–77 ✓
Syracuse @ Pittsburgh -3.9 142.9 33% 53–64 ✗
Southern Illinois @ Loyola Chicago +12.8 133.2 86% 47–59 ✓
Maryland @ Rutgers +1.9 136.0 57% 68–60 ✗
Auburn @ Missouri -12.0 146.8 16% 55–54 ✓
Georgetown @ UConn +17.7 157.3 90% 73–96 ✓
Mississippi State @ Kentucky +11.6 153.0 86% 74–82 ✓
Texas @ TCU +0.9 124.0 50% 73–50 ✗
Nevada @ Colorado State +11.6 152.8 85% 66–77 ✓
Fresno State @ New Mexico -4.2 140.6 32% 65–60 ✓
Wyoming @ Boise State +3.4 130.7 66% 62–65 ✓
Colorado @ Oregon +6.2 141.5 75% 82–78 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Northridge -2.7 133.6 35% 72–45 ✓
Air Force @ San José State -0.7 130.7 30% 63–53 ✓
Arizona @ UCLA -2.7 154.0 42% 59–75 ✗
Florida @ Tennessee +8.6 137.1 84% 71–78 ✓
Winthrop @ South Carolina Upstate -0.1 145.2 48% 95–91 ✓
Providence @ Xavier +5.8 141.1 74% 65–62 ✗
Creighton @ Butler -6.0 130.8 30% 55–72 ✗
Northwestern @ Michigan +6.3 146.4 76% 70–72 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.