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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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24–12 on winners spread MAE 9.1 36 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
South Dakota @ Western Illinois +3.4 154.1 65% 75–72 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ George Mason +6.2 136.5 77% 71–77 ✓
Bellarmine @ Jacksonville State +7.7 141.9 73% 60–65 ✓
Florida @ Ole Miss -5.4 135.4 35% 54–70 ✗
Towson @ Delaware -0.4 149.6 50% 69–62 ✓
Lafayette @ American University +0.7 137.3 45% 69–56 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Northeastern -0.3 139.3 36% 74–68 ✓
Tennessee State @ Morehead State +11.8 138.9 86% 54–67 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Colgate +6.3 140.2 76% 52–65 ✓
Morgan State @ Norfolk State +13.2 147.9 88% 62–82 ✓
Louisville @ Virginia +3.5 126.5 66% 52–64 ✓
New Hampshire @ Maine -12.7 133.9 15% 64–71 ✗
Hartford @ Binghamton +2.8 144.5 58% 64–74 ✓
Howard @ Coppin State -3.0 152.7 36% 81–83 ✗
Jackson State @ Florida A&M -0.1 126.7 43% 64–67 ✗
Alcorn State @ Bethune-Cookman -2.7 131.3 34% 70–67 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Maryland Eastern Shore +2.3 134.3 54% 75–63 ✗
South Carolina State @ Delaware State -10.2 134.2 14% 64–62 ✓
Sacramento State @ Northern Arizona +0.3 137.5 51% 65–70 ✓
Virginia Tech @ North Carolina +2.4 141.6 63% 68–78 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Murray State +18.3 143.2 89% 53–79 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ UT Martin +0.2 143.5 48% 70–76 ✓
Alabama State @ Texas Southern +12.5 139.0 86% 66–73 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Southern +21.9 150.1 91% 72–100 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Prairie View A&M +3.7 138.5 69% 48–72 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Grambling +8.5 142.4 83% 65–76 ✓
Texas Tech @ Kansas +6.8 142.5 79% 91–94 ✓
UNLV @ San Diego State +9.7 129.1 82% 55–80 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Idaho State -9.3 145.3 19% 89–63 ✓
San Diego @ Santa Clara +9.7 146.1 78% 74–78 ✓
St. John's @ Seton Hall +9.9 157.4 83% 84–63 ✗
Weber State @ Southern Utah +1.5 155.3 57% 92–84 ✗
Idaho @ Portland State +3.8 145.1 60% 84–79 ✗
Arizona State @ USC +11.4 138.9 87% 56–78 ✓
Richmond @ Rhode Island +3.2 137.5 62% 70–63 ✗
Alabama @ Georgia -13.5 156.3 17% 76–82 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.