That man could give a fuck about the grin on your face as you walk by randy as a goat. "Never Say Never" - Romeo Void
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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32–22 on winners spread MAE 10.5 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Eastern Kentucky @ Western Kentucky +4.1 152.7 67% 80–85 ✓
Stetson @ Florida International +11.3 133.3 81% 65–72 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Merrimack +2.0 127.6 55% 61–57 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ Fresno State +11.6 125.8 85% 43–61 ✓
High Point @ Elon +1.4 141.7 45% 83–77 ✗
Old Dominion @ George Mason +10.7 132.1 83% 60–50 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Long Beach State +1.4 148.3 46% 77–74 ✗
Duquesne @ Marshall +10.1 159.6 81% 71–72 ✓
Dartmouth @ Florida Gulf Coast +4.9 144.0 73% 68–78 ✓
Youngstown State @ Green Bay +0.5 136.8 47% 82–58 ✗
Southern @ Akron +4.8 135.0 69% 62–79 ✓
Alabama @ Gonzaga +1.9 152.2 52% 91–82 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Murray State +9.7 133.9 78% 87–93 ✓
Portland State @ Weber State +17.1 136.1 88% 69–80 ✓
Montana @ Northern Colorado +9.0 140.9 81% 75–78 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho State -4.0 132.4 36% 73–70 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Houston Christian -0.5 141.4 28% 85–67 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Grand Canyon +26.2 142.0 91% 44–91 ✓
Pacific @ Cal State Fullerton +8.2 135.0 76% 57–66 ✓
South Alabama @ Jacksonville State +2.5 139.8 56% 74–64 ✗
Iowa State @ Creighton +2.6 138.9 65% 64–58 ✗
Southern Miss @ Southern Illinois +11.0 131.2 84% 41–66 ✓
UNLV @ San Francisco +16.0 136.1 87% 62–83 ✓
Northwestern @ Maryland -3.3 142.1 38% 67–61 ✓
Fairfield @ Niagara +5.7 136.7 67% 81–71 ✗
Monmouth @ Canisius -9.6 141.6 21% 79–65 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Wofford +8.1 141.2 76% 62–88 ✓
Hartford @ St. Francis Brooklyn +0.7 139.2 43% 68–55 ✗
UMBC @ Delaware +3.9 153.6 61% 60–70 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ UCF +14.2 143.6 87% 45–81 ✓
Georgetown @ South Carolina +7.6 144.1 78% 67–80 ✓
Minnesota @ Mississippi State +6.3 134.0 74% 81–76 ✗
Richmond @ Northern Iowa +1.2 151.8 52% 60–52 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Brown +8.0 139.4 78% 66–79 ✓
NJIT @ Lafayette +2.2 133.1 50% 90–86 ✗
North Florida @ Florida Atlantic +7.7 149.6 77% 41–76 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ UIC +2.1 145.3 66% 64–56 ✗
Denver @ Texas State +11.7 143.0 81% 58–71 ✓
Marist @ Rider +2.0 138.7 56% 79–67 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Manhattan +8.6 142.1 79% 90–73 ✗
Siena @ Saint Peter's +9.4 138.0 81% 60–58 ✗
Western Illinois @ Central Michigan -8.8 147.9 17% 97–70 ✓
Valparaiso @ Western Michigan -0.9 146.3 35% 71–60 ✓
Belmont @ Samford -4.7 152.8 34% 85–73 ✓
St. Thomas @ Drake +8.2 149.0 77% 64–74 ✓
North Carolina @ Georgia Tech -2.2 151.1 45% 79–62 ✓
Arizona @ Oregon State -16.3 146.7 16% 90–65 ✓
Cal Poly @ San Diego +11.1 128.8 82% 51–52 ✓
VMI @ Seattle U +10.1 147.2 84% 89–82 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Troy +7.6 143.7 71% 72–68 ✗
Chattanooga @ Lipscomb +0.3 145.0 46% 85–64 ✗
Xavier @ Oklahoma State +4.8 134.9 65% 77–71 ✗
California @ Utah +10.2 140.5 84% 58–66 ✓
Kansas State @ Wichita State +8.4 132.5 66% 65–59 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.