Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–17 on winners spread MAE 9.1 52 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky +9.2 160.7 75% 61–82 ✓
Winthrop @ Presbyterian +0.7 153.4 50% 81–77 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Longwood +5.2 150.4 76% 77–90 ✓
Charleston Southern @ High Point +15.1 152.0 88% 60–83 ✓
Cincinnati @ West Virginia +3.6 131.3 66% 59–62 ✓
SMU @ Notre Dame -3.7 146.1 30% 97–73 ✓
NC State @ North Carolina +11.0 146.1 82% 73–97 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ George Washington +1.0 137.9 57% 79–68 ✗
Fordham @ Duquesne +4.6 142.4 71% 64–73 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Murray State +4.5 137.4 70% 60–62 ✓
Evansville @ Indiana State +4.5 150.0 67% 79–74 ✗
Navy @ Colgate +4.4 142.7 69% 75–79 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Boston University +3.1 134.8 62% 66–68 ✓
Providence @ Georgetown +3.6 139.4 67% 72–93 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Detroit Mercy +1.9 144.8 56% 80–71 ✗
Western Carolina @ Chattanooga +16.6 153.5 89% 86–91 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ East Tennessee State +0.8 131.5 58% 49–65 ✓
Mercer @ The Citadel -6.6 149.1 25% 62–52 ✓
East Carolina @ Tulane +3.1 140.9 70% 81–86 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Belmont +0.5 151.8 48% 82–75 ✗
UIC @ Drake +10.1 133.5 83% 57–74 ✓
Furman @ Samford +6.3 148.6 77% 80–72 ✗
UAB @ Rice -0.5 152.6 43% 90–89 ✓
South Florida @ UTSA +3.1 149.6 71% 78–73 ✗
Tulsa @ North Texas +15.7 127.2 87% 44–63 ✓
Missouri State @ Valparaiso +0.9 141.1 61% 64–66 ✓
Bradley @ Illinois State -0.4 145.7 44% 71–82 ✗
South Alabama @ Arkansas State +7.1 143.4 77% 60–56 ✗
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ South Dakota -3.2 168.4 41% 80–85 ✗
North Dakota State @ South Dakota State +6.2 155.2 74% 77–68 ✗
Omaha @ Kansas City -0.1 142.7 48% 78–66 ✓
Oregon @ Iowa +0.1 160.9 45% 80–78 ✗
UL Monroe @ Texas State +11.0 142.8 85% 63–80 ✓
Arkansas @ Auburn +15.1 152.7 88% 60–67 ✓
Alabama @ Missouri +0.7 169.6 60% 98–110 ✓
St. John's @ DePaul -10.3 141.2 21% 82–58 ✓
UCF @ Oklahoma State +0.8 158.7 59% 95–104 ✓
Miami @ Florida State +10.2 151.9 84% 66–74 ✓
Gonzaga @ Washington State -14.4 155.7 13% 84–63 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Denver +2.3 149.1 64% 60–71 ✓
San José State @ Utah State +13.7 152.1 88% 57–105 ✓
New Mexico @ Boise State +1.7 146.7 61% 78–86 ✓
Portland @ Saint Mary's +23.6 136.3 91% 66–79 ✓
Rutgers @ Washington +1.5 150.8 55% 89–85 ✗
Marshall @ Old Dominion -2.3 145.7 39% 81–77 ✓
UMBC @ UMass Lowell +5.4 158.2 71% 79–98 ✓
New Hampshire @ Binghamton +9.2 139.4 84% 60–79 ✓
Northwestern @ Ohio State +10.4 147.5 78% 70–49 ✗
Maine @ UAlbany -1.3 138.9 46% 68–79 ✗
Georgia Southern @ App State +8.5 137.1 80% 74–79 ✓
Drexel @ Delaware +0.5 145.4 56% 78–74 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Bellarmine -8.3 158.8 26% 74–80 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.