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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
28–7 on winners
spread MAE 9.9
35 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+15.0 | 152.7 | 89% | 63–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 141.3 | 53% | 54–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.1 | 144.5 | 70% | 66–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.6 | 149.4 | 86% | 69–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 139.3 | 60% | 77–69 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.5 | 160.6 | 33% | 79–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.2 | 151.4 | 87% | 72–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.1 | 149.8 | 89% | 62–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.3 | 151.5 | 43% | 57–66 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.3 | 149.0 | 46% | 97–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.8 | 158.3 | 90% | 63–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.4 | 143.6 | 26% | 91–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.9 | 151.6 | 74% | 82–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.0 | 156.6 | 73% | 66–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.1 | 140.4 | 89% | 65–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.1 | 139.5 | 39% | 66–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.6 | 152.1 | 79% | 63–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 159.2 | 71% | 74–95 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.3 | 130.3 | 79% | 62–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.7 | 151.8 | 57% | 86–75 | ✗ |
|
|
-10.1 | 133.0 | 15% | 80–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.7 | 133.0 | 90% | 56–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 144.8 | 63% | 57–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 143.3 | 49% | 36–54 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 139.6 | 67% | 71–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.0 | 141.6 | 71% | 67–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.9 | 134.3 | 86% | 64–61 | ✗ |
|
|
+17.3 | 141.1 | 89% | 60–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.6 | 152.5 | 52% | 72–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+17.0 | 146.0 | 88% | 51–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 141.6 | 53% | 69–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.1 | 135.7 | 59% | 69–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.8 | 141.3 | 37% | 82–43 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.8 | 142.7 | 67% | 63–58 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.7 | 148.9 | 52% | 72–89 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.